My humble take on the future of the economy:
Bottom line: it will recover sooner than later because there is no “structural weakness in the economy “ that moves money away from pockets of consumers and business.
The strength of the economic structure and foundation was enhanced by Trumponomics with laws enacted the last 3 years . It is based on instituting reforms on regulatory impediments that stifle business growth, lower tax on federal personal income, business and investment, USA FIRST policy providing incentives to manufacture in USA, repatriation, border control to prevent illegal immigration and illegal drugs, trade policies based towards “fair and reciprocal trade”, reciprocal tariff, foreign expenses to “allies” right-sized relative to fairness, strengthening USA military and NATO, prison reforms, outreach program to minorities, “Right to Try”, foreign affairs policies, etc.
Congress and Federal Reserves are ready to support “whatever it takes”.
It may not be V-recovery but can be W-recovery.
Self-interest towards risk-rewards will dominate people’s actions. Tiptoeing into #OUAA (OpenUpAmericaAgain)and #TTG (TransitionToGreatneas) is starting and will continue. Every old/new case is bad but Covid-19 cases will increase because of increased testing and transmission leading to “herd immunity”. But, mortality rate will still be 5-6% and per USA population will still be <1%. Preventive, protective and treatment modalities against SARS-CoV-2 will accelerate. All these factors will bend-down, level-off Fear/Panic; that “initiated lockdown”; thus will “power up the markets, business, consumers and all engines of US and global economy”.
Ultimate endpoints will be determined by “who wants USA” to succeed or fail? Who will be proud to wear the monicker “home of the brave” and evaluate rightly or wrongly “risk-vs-rewards” within the context of 1 A.
Original post:May 17, 2020
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